Iron ore and steel prices increased sharply during the second half of 2020 as strong demand caught suppliers who shuttered plants earlier in the year off-guard. The steel industry had been facing eroding spot prices for more than a year before COVID was classified as a pandemic in March. After watching spot prices fall throughout 2019 and then fearing additional strain on the industry due to the spread of COVID across the world—and especially in the US—it is all too reasonable to understand why the industry shuttered large amounts of production early on in 2020.
Machine tool orders increased for the second month in a row. The trend in the GBI indicates growth in machine tool orders should continue.
Compared with one year ago, November’s monetary base was up 53.6%, which was the third month in a row and fifth in the last seven months with faster than 50% growth.
The change in the 10-yr Treasury was at its highest level since January. A less negative change in the real rate is less stimulating to the economy, which is not what the Federal Reserve wants right now.
Consumer durable goods spending is growing extremely fast, hitting a record high five straight months, and indicating a bottom in the rate of contraction in durable goods new orders has occurred.
The Gardner Business Index moved lower between October and November from 53.9 to 51.0. The decline was largely a result of slowing activity in production and new orders. Large firms categories (100-250 and >250 employees) in recent months have signaled significantly better overall business conditions relative to firms under 20 employees in size.
There were 132,900 housing permits filed in October 2020, which was the third month in the last four with more than 130,000 permits filed. That has not happened since March to June 2007.
October had the lowest level of income since the start of the pandemic. Although, income was still 5.0% higher than one year ago because some COVID-related benefits were still in place.
In October, real consumer durable goods spending was $2,066.5 billion, which is an all-time high for the fifth consecutive month.
New legal precedent set by the U.S. International Trade Administration may expose Chinese manufacturers to a broad range of new antidumping and countervailing duties in the U.S.
The GBI: Metalworking indicated that the annual rate of contraction in cutting tool orders should bottom out near the end of the year.
The accelerating growth in the money supply is indicating growth in capital equipment consumption.
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