In June, the index for production of durable goods was 101.8, which was its second-highest level since March 2019. Compared with one year ago, the index increased 12.2%, which was the fourth straight month of growth. The historical average month-over-month growth rate is 3.2%. The much stronger than normal growth is due to an easy comparison with last year when the country was just starting to exit lockdowns. The comparisons will get less easy each month.

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, grew 3.4%. This was the second straight month of accelerating growth. The key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – has bottomed out and grew at an accelerating annual rate for the first time since December 2019. Durable goods new orders are indicating that production should see accelerating growth in the second half of 2021. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: appliances, automotive, construction materials, custom processors, durable goods, electronics/computers, food/beverage processing, hardware, HVAC, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, medical, military, off-road/construction machinery, plastic/rubber products, power generation, primary metals, ship/boat building, textiles/clothing/leather goods

Decelerating Growth: 

Accelerating Contraction: 

Decelerating Contraction: aerospace, forming/fabricating (non-auto), furniture, metalcutting job shops, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, petrochemical processors, printing, pumps/valves/plumbing products, wood/paper products