The Gardner Business Index (GBI) measures the current state of durable goods manufacturing activity through survey responses covering new orders, production, backlog, employment, exports and supplier deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.

The GBI softened for a third consecutive month in July, slipping about half a point to 55.0, but it held comfortably in expansion for a seventh straight month. The step-down was driven mainly by employment, which gave back nearly two points, while production held essentially flat and new orders eased only modestly, signaling a market that is settling into a steadier pace rather than turning down. Supplier deliveries remained elevated at 62.8, consistent with plants busy enough to keep lead times stretched, and exports slipped to a little over one point, staying below the expansion line.

A notable bright spot was cost pressure. Material prices eased more than two points to 81.4, their softest reading in months, though still elevated. Capital-spending intentions firmed, with the three-month average estimated spend per plant rising to roughly $513,000 from about $500,000, while the share of facilities planning capital purchases held near 72%. Optimism remained steady, with the Future Business Index, on a three-month average basis, at 65.4 versus 65.7 the prior month.

The Gardner Business Index eased to 55.0 in July but held in expansion for a seventh straight month. Source (All Images) | GROW Industrial Intelligence

The GBI Components Scorecard reports the monthly change rate of primary market factors contributing to the overall monthly index reading.

On a three-month average basis, all six core components remain above their year-ago levels, with exports the sole component below 50.

Reading the Scorecard: Color indicates where a component value falls relative to 50 for the current month. Green indicates expansion; red indicates contraction.

Shade indicates a value's distance from 50; the darker the shade, the further from 50.

Direction indicates a value's change versus the previous period. Pointing up is always better.

GBI Spending Intentions reports the average estimated spending per plant over the next 12 months and the percent of facilities indicating they plan to make capital purchases. Both are reported as a three-month moving average.

Average spend per plant rose to roughly $513,000 on a three-month average basis, up from about $500,000, while the share of plants planning capital purchases held near 72%.

The GBI Future Business Index is an indicator of the future state of the metalworking market from industry respondents regarding their opinion of future business conditions for the next 12 months. Over 50 is expansion and under 50 is contraction.

The three-month average for the Future Business Index held at 65.4 in July, keeping forward-looking sentiment firmly positive.