The annual rate of change in the GBI: Metalworking grew 27.1% in September, which was the seventh straight month of accelerating growth. The strong growth in the metalworking industry should lead to accelerating growth in machine tool orders throughout 2021.
After one month of weak growth in July, housing permits grew 22.5% in August, marking the 5th month in the last six that housing permits grew more than 20%. In particular, this is a positive indicator for plastics processing production.
Compared with one year ago, durable goods new orders grew 13% in August. That’s five of the last six months with double-digit growth. Given the strong growth in durable goods consumer spending, new orders should see accelerating growth for at least another three months.
The growth of e-commerce sales and new business formations in the digital retail sector will provide an enduring support base for the packaging industry’s bright future.
The year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury, now -331 basis points, was slightly less negative for the second month in a row. However, the change was still quite negative and indicating further expansion in manufacturing.
The key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – grew at an accelerating annual rate for the third consecutive month. Durable goods new orders are indicating that production should see accelerating growth in the second half of 2021 and possibly into 2022.
The capacity utilization in all but two of the industries tracked by Gardner Intelligence is in an accelerating growth mode (the two exceptions are growing slower). This is a positive sign for capital equipment consumption as capacity utilization leads capital spending by seven to 10 months.
Banking data signal rising demand from companies for credit. This may support ancedotal evidence that a rising proportion of firms are struggling with limited working capital.
Compared with one year ago, the GBI: Metalworking was 23.5% higher, which was the 13th consecutive month of growth. The strong growth in the metalworking industry should lead to accelerating growth in machine tool orders throughout 2021.
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