Anguish over domestic labor availability is only part of the problem facing U.S. manufacturers and ultimately product prices. Challenging labor market conditions are creating similar problems and rising production cost problems in China as well.
A strong recovery in metalworking, exhibited by the v-shaped recovery in the GBI: Metalworking, has led to strong growth in cutting tool orders for three straight months. Since the GBI: Metalworking leads cutting tool orders by 7-10 months, the growth in cutting tool orders should carry into 2022.
The year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury rate is virtually the most negative it has been since the summer of 2008. This is indicating that the slow growth in housing permits in July could be temporary.
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The GBI registered slowing growth in July with a 60.8 reading, down about 2-points from June. Larger companies have reported better business conditions thus far in 2021. Conversely, firms under 50 and in particular those under 20 employees in size have been less optimistic about business conditions.
Despite falling to its lowest level since February, the durable goods production index grew for the fifth month in a row compared with one year ago. Three months of accelerating growth in the annual rate of change indicate that capital equipment consumption will accelerate into 2022.
The GBI: Metalworking backlog index grew for the fifth month in a row, indicating that durable goods capacity utilization should see accelerating growth for the remainder of 2021 and into 2022.
A sharp decline in the year-over-year change in real 10-year Treasury rates due to accelerating inflation indicates strong capital equipment spending for the remainder of 2021 and possibly into 2022.
Five-Axis and Micro-machining continue to report an accelerating expansion of business activity while the broader Gardner Business Index has registered more consistent expansionary growth.
The GBI: Metalworking is growing at its fastest rate since December 2010. The rapid growth in the metalworking industry should lead to accelerating growth in machine tool orders throughout 2021.
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