In November, real consumer durable goods spending was $2,032.2 billion. The month-over-month rate of growth for durable goods spending was 12.1%, which was the sixth straight month with growth faster than 11%. This was the fastest, longest run of growth since the summer of 1999 in the middle of the dot com bubble. The annual rate of growth accelerated for the sixth straight month to 6.3%, which was the fastest rate of growth since January 2019.

The real 10-year Treasury rate, which is the nominal rate minus the rate of inflation, was -0.44%. This was the 11^th consecutive month and 14^th of the last 16 that the real rate was negative. However, the rate was grinding slowly higher since April.  November’s real rate was the highest since January.

In October, the year-over-year change in the real rate was -47 basis points. The change was negative for the 23^rd month in a row. The change was at its highest level since January. Since April, the trend in the year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury was less negative. A less negative change in the real rate is less stimulating to durable goods spending.

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices. 

Accelerating Growth: durable goods, electronics, food/beverage, motor vehicles/parts, other non-durable goods, pleasure boats

Decelerating Growth: appliances

Accelerating Contraction: air transportation services, medical care, total consumer

Decelerating Contraction: clothing/footwear