In April, the index for production of durable goods was 79.9, which was the lowest level for the index since July 2009. Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 26.4%, which was the fastest rate of month-over-month contraction in the history of the index.

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, contracted 3.0% this month. This was the second consecutive month of accelerating contraction. The key leading indicator of production—durable goods new orders—is indicating further contraction in production. And, of course, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to cause significant contraction in industrial production in May as well.

 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: 

Decelerating Growth: construction materials, electronics/computers, medical, military

Accelerating Contraction: aerospace, automotive, custom processors, durable goods, food/beverage processing, forming/fabricating (non-auto), furniture, hardware, HVAC, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, metalcutting job shops, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, off-road/construction machinery, petrochemical processors, plastic/rubber products, power generation, primary metals, printing, pumps/valves/plumbing products, ship/boat building, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products

Decelerating Contraction: appliances