In October, real disposable income was $15,682 billion. This was the lowest level of income since the start of the pandemic. Although, income was still 5.0% higher than one year ago because some COVID-related benefits were still in place. However, the month-over-month rate of growth was the slowest since the start of the pandemic. 

The annual rate of growth accelerated to 5.8%. This was the fastest rate of annual growth since December 1998. Normally, this kind of acceleration would lead to a dramatic increase in consumer spending. While the increased government transfer payments may have helped support consumer spending in the near term, consumer spending has “crashed,” contracting at its fastest rate in more than 40 years. The question is what happens to consumer spending when the stimulus ends?