There were 107,300 housing permits filed in December 2019. This was the lowest level for housing permits since March 2019. However, permits in December 2019 were up 12.5% compared with one year ago. Therefore, December was the sixth consecutive month of growth in housing permits. Also, this was the third month in the last four that housing permits increased more than 12%.

In December, the annual rate of change accelerated to 3.1%, which made it the fourth-straight month of accelerating growth. This was the fastest rate of annual growth since January 2019. The annual rate of growth will likely continue to accelerate in the months ahead, as the three-month rate of change was faster than 12% for the third month in a row.

The recent trend in the 10-year Treasury rate is indicating growth in housing permits, too. In November, the year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury rate was -0.33%, which was the 12th month in a row that the change was negative, meaning the rate dropped from what it was one year ago.

The change in the 10-year Treasury rate is a good leading indicator of housing permits and construction spending. A decreasing year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury rate should lead to increases in these data points down the line.