January machine tool orders were 1,580 units and $262,793,000.

January’s unit orders were the lowest since January 2017. Orders for the month contracted 30.3% compared with year ago, which was the fastest one-month rate of contraction this cycle. This was the seventh month in a row of contraction and the eighth in the last nine. The annual rate of contraction decelerated to -14.0% from -10.9% this month.

Dollar orders contracted 34.0% compared with one year ago. This was 12^th-straight month of dollar order contraction and the 13^th in the last 14 months. Unlike unit orders, January’s rate of contraction in dollars was not the fastest of this cycle. January was the seventh month in a row of accelerating contraction in the annual rate of change in dollar orders as the rate rate of contraction fell to -20.9% from -18.1%.

While the GBI: Metalworking has been a negative leading indicator for future machine tool orders for a number of months, the Index is starting to turn (of course, this could change due to COVID-19 as new data comes out). First, the Index was 50.2 for the second month in a row in February 2020. Second, the month-over-month rate of change in the Index has contracted slower for four months, meaning the annual rate of contraction is very close to a bottom. The Index tends to lead machine tool orders by about seven months.