Each of the 13 Federal Reserve Districts has a degree of independence which allows them the latitude to collect economic data of their choosing. The Kansas City District which geographically covers 6 plains states and the western half of Missouri uniquely collects and reports indexed data on the volume of new orders for this territory. Their May reading set an 18-year high of 35.0. The latest reading beat past cyclical peaks of 31.0 (2018) and 25 (2010).

The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Volume of New Orders Index tracks manufacturing new orders activity in a unique way from other measures of new orders activity.  This gives a richer understanding of the demand for manufactured goods in the Plains states.

Based upon Gardner Intelligence’s own experience with diffusion indices and specifically the Gardner Business Index, heightened activity around new orders often precedes a same-direction movement in production, backlog and employment activity over the following 1-5 months. Applying our experience to the latest data would suggest that manufacturing production in the plains states is only likely to expand during the second-half of 2022.