In January, real consumer durable goods spending reached an all-time high. The month-over-month rate of growth for durable goods spending was 7.3%, which was the third month in the last five with growth faster than the historic average rate of 5.6%. 

The annual rate of growth accelerated for the second month in a row to 5.1%. This was the fastest rate of growth since March 2019. Because the real 10-year Treasury rate declined in 2019, and because of the acceleration in quarterly growth, there should be further accelerating growth in the first quarter of 2020. A further decline in the 10-year rate, which as of this writing is near 1%, could increase durable goods spending even more. However, economic concerns may cause a reduction in consumer spending.

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices. Note that all spending categories but appliances moved to accelerating growth. Further, appliances were very close to shifting to accelerating growth.

Accelerating Growth: air transportation services, appliances, durable goods, electronics, medical care, motor vehicles/parts, other non-durable goods, total consumer

Decelerating Growth: clothing/footwear, food/beverage, pleasure boats

Accelerating Contraction: 

Decelerating Contraction: