Durable Goods Spending Growth Back Below Historic Average

Durable goods spending growth has been below average every month but one since August 2018.

In October, the month-over-month rate of growth for durable goods spending was 5.2%, which was significantly slower than last month. Additionally, the month-over-month rate of growth fell back below the long-term average growth rate. However, growth has been somewhat stronger the last four months than it was around the turn of the year due to the falling change in the real 10-year Treasury rate.

The annual rate of growth was unchanged at 4.3%. This was virtually the slowest annual rate of growth since September 2010, but with the recent month-over-month growth in durable goods spending and the declining year-over-year change in the 10-year Treasury rate , there could be some modest acceleration in the annual rate of growth heading into the fourth quarter.

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices.

Accelerating Growth: durable goods, electronics, medical care, motor vehicles/parts, other non-durable goods, pleasure boats

Decelerating Growth: air transportation services, clothing/footwear, food/beverage, total consumer

Accelerating Contraction: 

Decelerating Contraction: appliances


Top Shops

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World Machine Tool Survey

An independent annual survey that collects statistics from machine tool consuming and producing countries and compares them in real U.S. dollars.

Capital Spending Survey

An annual survey that collects statistics regarding budgeted spending on machine tools, testing equipment, software and more.

Gardner Business Index

A diffusion index measuring month-to-month changes in activity at durable goods and discrete parts manufacturing facilities.