Durable Goods Spending Growth Accelerates

While spending continues to accelerate, the month-over-month rate of growth remained below average for the seventh month.

In March, the month-over-month rate of growth for durable goods spending was 3.0%, which was the third straight month of accelerating growth. However, the rate was below the historic average for the seventh consecutive month. Because of the relatively weak month-over-month rate of growth, the annual rate of growth also decelerated for the seventh consecutive month. It fell to 4.5%, the slowest rate of annual growth since May 2012.

In March, the year-over-year change in the 10-year Treasury rate was -52 basis points, which was fifth consecutive month the change declined and the third-straight month the change was below zero. March’s change in the rate was the lowest since January 2018. This trend is a positive leading indicator for consumer durable goods spending.

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices.

Accelerating Growth: air transportation services, clothing/footwear, total consumer, medical care, other non-durable goods

Decelerating Growth: durable goods, electronics, food/beverage, motor vehicles/parts

Accelerating Contraction: appliances

Decelerating Contraction: pleasure boats


Top Shops

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World Machine Tool Survey

An independent annual survey that collects statistics from machine tool consuming and producing countries and compares them in real U.S. dollars.

Capital Spending Survey

An annual survey that collects statistics regarding budgeted spending on machine tools, testing equipment, software and more.

Gardner Business Index

A diffusion index measuring month-to-month changes in activity at durable goods and discrete parts manufacturing facilities.