Durable Goods Production Reaches Highest Level Ever

Production is still growing month-over-month, but the growth rate is slowing down.

In June, the index for production of durable goods was at 111.4, which was its highest level ever. The index increased 1.4% compared with one year ago, extending its growth streak to 31 months. However, the growth rate has slowed in recent months, falling below the historical average for the last five months. 

However, the annual rate of growth, which is easier to correlate with other data points, decelerated to 2.9%, down from 3.0% last month. This growth was slower than the peak annual growth of 3.5% in February, and it was the slowest rate of growth since July 2018. The annual rate of growth is likely to decelerate even more as the month-over-month rate of growth has been relatively weak the last five months. Further, the key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – is indicating slower growth in industrial production.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: aerospace, electronics/computers/telecommunications, medical, military, off-road/construction machinery, petrochemical processors, ship/boat building

Decelerating Growth: automotive, construction materials, durable goods, food/beverage, forming/fabricating (non-auto), hardware, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, metalcutting job shops, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, power generation, primary metals, pumps/valves/plumbing products

Accelerating Contraction: appliances, furniture, HVAC, printing, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products

Decelerating Contraction: custom processors, plastics/rubber products

Reports

Top Shops

‘Top Shops’ is a benchmarking and recognition program designed to help shops build their business.

World Machine Tool Survey

An independent annual survey that collects statistics from machine tool consuming and producing countries and compares them in real U.S. dollars.

Capital Spending Survey

An annual survey that collects statistics regarding budgeted spending on machine tools, testing equipment, software and more.

Gardner Business Index

A diffusion index measuring month-to-month changes in activity at durable goods and discrete parts manufacturing facilities.