In March, the index for production of durable goods was 107.8. Compared with one year ago, the index increased 6.8%, which was the first month of growth since August 2019 and the fastest rate of month-over-month growth since June 2012. Of course, part of the reason for this growth was March 2020 was affected by the early stages of the economy being shut down. And, the comparisons will get even easier in April and May. 

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, contracted 8.2%. This was the 13^th consecutive month of contraction but the first where the contraction decelerated. The key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – has bottomed out, according to its rate of change, and is indicating that production has likely done the same. Also, consumer durable goods spending, which leads durable goods new orders, grew more than 11% from June to November 2020, 9.5% in December 2020, and more than 16% in January and February this year. This seemingly means production needs to increase significantly to keep from eating too far into inventories.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: appliances, HVAC

Decelerating Growth: electronics/computers

Accelerating Contraction: furniture, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, wood/paper products

Decelerating Contraction: aerospace, automotive, construction materials, custom processors, durable goods, food/beverage processing, forming/fabricating (non-auto), hardware, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, medical, metalcutting job shops, military, off-road/construction machinery, petrochemical processors, plastic/rubber products, power generation, primary metals, printing, pumps/valves/plumbing products, ship/boat building, textiles/clothing/leather goods