Bottom in Machine Tool Orders in Sight

The trend in the GBI: Metalworking indicates that machine tool orders will bottom out sometime between September and the first quarter of 2021.

August machine tool orders were 1,679 units and $289,417,000.

August’s unit orders contracted 19.2% compared with one year ago, which was noticeably faster than the previous two months. However, the annual rate of contraction was 19.6%, which was the first month of decelerating since December 2019. The rate has contracted for 12 months, accelerating for seven consecutive months. It appears that the annual rate of contraction bottomed in July.

Dollar orders contracted 23.6% compared with one year ago. This was the 19th straight month of dollar order contraction. The annual rate of change contracted for the 14th month in a row and appeared to be very near a bottom.

The West region had a strong month with unit orders up 2.2%.  Unit orders in the Southeast increased 25.8% compared with one year ago, growing for the second month in a row. 

Compared with one year ago, the GBI: Metalworking grew 2.9%, which was the second consecutive month of growth. The annual rate of contraction in the GBI has clearly bottomed and tends to bottom out 7-10 months prior to machine tool orders bottoming out. This would indicate that the annual rate of contraction in machine tool orders would bottom out in the first quarter of 2021. Although, the normal lag time could be accelerated this cycle because of significant government support for the economy due to the pandemic.

Reports

Top Shops

‘Top Shops’ is a benchmarking and recognition program designed to help shops build their business.

World Machine Tool Survey

An independent annual survey that collects statistics from machine tool consuming and producing countries and compares them in real U.S. dollars.

Capital Spending Survey

An annual survey that collects statistics regarding budgeted spending on machine tools, testing equipment, software and more.

Gardner Business Index

A diffusion index measuring month-to-month changes in activity at durable goods and discrete parts manufacturing facilities.