In March, the index for production of durable goods was 99.4, which was the first time the index fell below 100 since July 2016. Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 9.7%, which was the seventh straight month of contraction. Also, March’s month-over-month rate of contraction was the fastest since October 2009.

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, contracted 0.9% this month. This was the first month of annual contraction since April 2017.  The key leading indicator of production—durable goods new orders—is indicating contraction in production. And, of course, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to cause significant contraction in industrial production in April and May.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: electronics/computers, food/beverage processing

Decelerating Growth: construction materials, medical, military, pumps/valves/plumbing products

Accelerating Contraction: aerospace, automotive, custom processors, durable goods, forming/fabricating (non-auto), furniture, hardware, HVAC, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, metalcutting job shops, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, off-road/construction machinery, petrochemical processors, plastic/rubber products, power generation, primary metals, printing, ship/boat building, textiles/clothing/leather goods

Decelerating Contraction: appliances, wood/paper products