In January, the Index for production of durable goods was 105.0, which was the third lowest level for the index since July 2019. Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 0.9%, which was the fifth straight month of contraction.

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, grew 0.3% this month. The annual rate of growth decelerated for the 11^th straight month. December’s growth rate was the slowest since May 2017, and it is likely to contract in the next month or two. Further, the key leading indicator of production—durable goods new orders—is indicating contraction in production.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: electronics/computers

Decelerating Growth: aerospace, construction materials, durable goods, forming/fabricating (non-auto), industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, medical, military, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, power generation, pumps/valves/plumbing products, ship/boat building

Accelerating Contraction: appliances, custom processors, hardware, HVAC, machinery/equipment, metalcutting job shops, off-road/construction machinery, petrochemical processors, plastic/rubber products, primary metals, textiles/clothing/leather goods

Decelerating Contraction: automotive, food/beverage processing, furniture, printing, wood/paper products