Over the last few weeks, several measures of durable goods have improved markedly.  After contracting by nearly 18% in March on a month-to-month basis, the May through July period has averaged 11.22% growth. The July reading released today (8/26) was 11.19%

This turning of events supports the outlook expressed by many that the present economic recession will end by year-end 2020, or in the first-half of 2021.