There were 113,000 housing permits filed in January 2020. This was the highest level for housing permits since October 2019. Permits filed in January were up 19.7% compared with one year ago, which was the fastest rate of growth month-over-month since November 2015. January was the seventh consecutive month of growth in housing permits. Also, this was the fourth month in the last five that housing permits increased more than 12%.

In January, the annual rate of growth accelerated to 4.7%, which made it the fifth-straight month of accelerating growth. This was the fastest rate of annual growth since September 2018. The annual rate of growth will likely continue to accelerate in the months ahead, as the three-month rate of change was faster than 12% for the fourth month in a row.

In January, the nominal 10-year Treasury rate was 1.76%, which was down slightly from the previous two months. Also, this was the sixth month in a row the nominal rate was less than 2.00%. At the same time, inflation reached its highest annual rate since October 2018 and kept the real 10-year Treasury below zero for the fifth time in eight months. In January, the real rate was just -0.13%. In January, the year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury rate was -0.44%, which was the 13^th consecutive month the change was negative. 

The change in the 10-year Treasury rate is a good leading indicator of housing permits and construction spending. A decreasing year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury rate should lead to increases in these data points down the line.