Production Index May Signal Peak Durable Goods Growth

It is likely that the annual rate of growth reached its peak rate in February as durable goods new orders grew slightly slower the last six months.

In February, the index for production of durable goods was at 108.1. While the index was up noticeably from the last three months, February’s index grew just 2.5 compared with one year ago. That was the second straight month of decelerating growth and the slowest month-over-month rate of growth since May 2018. 

The annual rate of growth, which is easier to correlate with other data points, was unchanged in February, which ended a streak of eight-consecutive months of accelerating growth. It is likely that this will mark the peak of growth for durable goods industrial production

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: durable goods, electronics/computers/telecommunications, furniture, hardware, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, military, power generation, primary metals, pumps/valves/plumbing products

Decelerating Growth: automotive, construction materials, custom processors, food/beverage, forming/fabricating (non-auto), HVAC, machinery/equipment, metalcutting job shops, off-road/construction machinery, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, petrochemical processors, plastics/rubber products, ship/boat building, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products

Accelerating Contraction: appliances, printing

Decelerating Contraction: aerospace, medical

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