Durable Goods Spending Grows at 1.0 Percent

January’s rate of growth was the slowest since August 2010 when the month-over-month change actually contracted.

In January, the month-over-month rate of growth for durable goods spending was 1.0 percent, which was the fifth month in a row that the growth rate was below the historic average of 5.5 percent. January’s rate of growth was the slowest since August 2010, when the month-over-month change actually contracted. Further, December’s growth rate was revised to just 1.8 from 3.2 percent, and the annual rate of growth decelerated to 5.1 percent, decelerating for the fifth-straight month. This was the slowest rate of annual growth since July 2012. 

In February, the year-over-year change in the 10-year Treasury rate was -47 basis points, which was the second straight month the change was below zero and the lowest change since January 2018. It’s quite possible that the change in the 10-year Treasury rate has reversed course and is now a positive leading indicator for durable goods spending, manufacturing and capital equipment. 

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices.

Accelerating Growth: 

Decelerating Growth: air transportation services, clothing/footwear, durable goods, electronics, food/beverage, medical care, motor vehicles/parts, other non-durable goods, total consumer

Accelerating Contraction: appliances, pleasure boats

Reports

Top Shops

‘Top Shops’ is a benchmarking and recognition program designed to help shops build their business.

World Machine Tool Survey

An independent annual survey that collects statistics from machine tool consuming and producing countries and compares them in real U.S. dollars.

Capital Spending Survey

An annual survey that collects statistics regarding budgeted spending on machine tools, testing equipment, software and more.

Gardner Business Index

A diffusion index measuring month-to-month changes in activity at durable goods and discrete parts manufacturing facilities.