Durable Goods Orders Jump 8.3 Percent in July

Orders grew more than 8.0 percent in four of the last six months.

New orders for real durable goods in July 2018 were the second lowest of 2018. However, compared with one year ago, durable goods new orders increased 8.3 percent. July was the fourth time in six months that orders grew more than 8.0 percent, the 13th time in 14 months that orders have grown. The annual rate of change accelerated to 6.1 percent in July after decelerating in June. With real consumer durable goods spending growth flattening, it is likely that durable goods orders have hit a peak this cycle. Orders tend to lead industrial production by about three months and capital equipment consumption by 10 to 15 months.

Motor vehicle and parts orders increased 13.8 percent compared with one year ago, growing for the sixth time in seven months. July’s growth was the fastest month-over-month growth since February 2016. As a result, the annual rate of change accelerated to 2.7 percent, the fastest since June 2016.

Aerospace orders decreased 7.1 percent in July compared with one year ago, contracting for the second month in a row. But, the GBI: Aerospace index showed that orders were still very strong. 

Accelerating Growth: aerospace, computers/electronics, construction materials, durable goods, HVAC, motor vehicle/parts, primary metals

Decelerating Growth: construction materials, fabricated metal products, machinery/equipment, off-road/construction machinery, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, power generation, ship/boat building, total capital goods

Accelerating Contraction: 

Decelerating Contraction: appliances

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